In the time since, he has worked for a wide range of well-known publications including the Evening Standard, FourFourTwo, Football365, GOAL and TNT Sports. In his current role as a freelance content producer for The Sporting News, he writes betting content mostly for football but also tennis, golf, rugby union and Formula 1. The main challenge in Group J is identifying who finishes behind Argentina, as Lionel Messi’s final World Cup campaign makes them clear favorites. Jordan’s Moussa Al Tamari is a player to watch and capable of driving a surprise run. While Algeria and Austria bring veteran leadership, Al‑Tamari’s pace and creativity could tilt the balance.

Betting Tips: How to Read and Use World Cup Predictions

David Raya, Mikel Merino and Martin Zubimendi are Premier League champions and Champions League runners-up. There are eight LaLiga winners from Barcelona – but, tellingly, none from Real Madrid. If you’re after a free-flowing side, stick to the Spains of this world. Led by Carlo Ancelotti, who gets over the line in knockout games by placing importance on defensive shape but allowing individual quality to shine through. Colombia were victorious in 23.9 percent of simulations, while the draw was given a 25.2 percent probability. A point would be enough for Colombia to secure the top spot in Group K.

Champion: France

Colombia also deserve their lofty status in our projections, as they come in the tournament off the back of a run to the final of the 2024 Copa América, having outscored all other teams at that tournament with 12 goals. Eleven of the tournament’s venues are in the USA, and Mauricio Pochettino’s side are assigned a 0.9% chance of going all the way. They will be placed in Group D, with two of their first-round games taking place in Los Angeles and the other in Seattle. Mbappé is closing in on Olivier Giroud’s mark of 57 goals for France, having netted 55 times in his 93 caps. Ahead of this week’s draw, we have taken a deep dive into the Opta supercomputer’s first set of World Cup predictions to assess who is most likely to lift the trophy. Ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026 draw on Friday 5 December, the Opta supercomputer has produced its early predictions for this summer’s tournament in North America.

Play-Off Hopefuls

• The supercomputer believes Spain have a chance to ease into the tournament, as they topped Group H in a massive 75.3% of sims, with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde representing a reasonably kind draw.
• Neymar is no longer the first name on the team sheet but whatever squad the now 34-year-old is part of will still be lifted by his presence.
• Led by Carlo Ancelotti, who gets over the line in knockout games by placing importance on defensive shape but allowing individual quality to shine through.
• As the tournament draws ever closer, getting stuck into the Opta supercomputer’s projections is the perfect way to whet your appetite while brushing up on some stimulating statistics.
• But the likes of Enzo Fernández and Julián Alvarez have kicked on in the last two years, and any team which has Messi has a chance of going all the way – a creditable 8.7% chance, according to the supercomputer.
• While the field is a bit more watered-down than in previous iterations of the tournament, it’ll still be a challenge for most teams looking to advance to the Round of 32.
• The most likely route to over 3 is Argentina scoring freely rather than a high-scoring exchange, and Scaloni’s side have the firepower to deliver that in a knockout tie against a side with limited attacking threat.
• Use the World Cup 2026 Simulator to pick every tie and build your own bracket.
• Since Spain’s victory in South Africa, La Roja have not made it past the round of 16, exiting at that stage in the last two editions.

The United States will begin play on June 12 and is a World Cup 2026 co-host alongside Canada and Mexico, but it’s European nations who top the latest soccer odds to win the tournament, per FanDuel Sportsbook. France (+500) and England (+650) round out the top three in the 2026 World Cup odds, while Brazil (+850) are the biggest World Cup favorites outside of Europe. All three teams have a chance greater than 5% of winning the tournament, and of at least 10% to reach the final. The trio are closely matched and have regularly traded ranking positions leading up to the summer. Looking ahead, many World Cup 2026 predictions point 2026 world cup schedule toward a final involving two European or South American giants. France and Brazil are often mentioned as likely finalists due to their squad depth and consistency in recent matches.

World Cup betting: Odds for every knockout stage team to win it all

Dive deeper into the tournament with our guides, analysis, and complete team profiles. This version of Morocco has the tools to be more proactive against France, but that can be a double-edged sword, facing Les Bleus’ phenomenal attack. Belgium are coming down the other side of the mountain, with just a few key figures remaining from their “golden generation”. Forever less than the sum of their parts, they feel ripe to be the victims of a banner night for U.S. soccer.

World Cup bracket: Who plays who in round of 32?

Argentina remains a serious contender, especially if key players stay fit. England could also reach the final if their young squad maintains its current trajectory. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first edition to feature 48 nations and the first hosted by three countries — the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The expanded format introduces 12 groups and a Round of 32 knockout stage, making it the biggest World Cup in history with 104 total matches played across 16 iconic venues. Argentina’s World Cup 2026 campaign has been a demonstration of controlled authority. Lionel Scaloni’s side posted three wins from three in group play, beating Algeria 3-0, Austria 2-0 and Jordan 3-1, and Messi has been in remarkable form at 39 years old, driving his side through the group phase with six goals.

A more realistic aim might be getting through the groups after impressing in AFC qualification – beating out sides like Qatar and United Arab Emirates. When the tournament begins, it will have been 20 years since the Azzurri played a knockout match at the World Cup – with their most recent such game being the 2006 final. And of course, there are also six teams still to be decided in March’s play-offs. There is currently a combined 3.7% chance of any of those sides going all the way, with Italy surely the most likely candidates if they can end their World Cup exile. Croatia are another team whose best days may be behind them but can never be ruled out. Semi-finalists in both 2018 and 2022, they are assigned a 1.1% chance of glory – lower than Mexico and Uruguay (1.7%), whose coach Bielsa recently went on a rant in a press conference following speculation over his position.

From the greatest individual rivalry of the 21st century to the greatest international soccer rivalry of all time. Even if Brazil have improved as expected under Ancelotti, they are a rung below their great foes at present. Haaland’s father’s generation (Alfie actually didn’t play at the tournament in question) claimed a famous group-stage win over Brazil at France ’98.

World Cup Odds: Who is the favourite?

• This involves two teams from CONCACAF and one team from the AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL and OFC.
• Portugal are fifth favourites to triumph, as Cristiano Ronaldo seeks the one honour still missing from his trophy cabinet.
• Moreover, with international tournaments and matches being played so sparingly, being able to get over the line and win trophies can play a huge role in deciding the winners of major tournaments like the World Cup.
• Now that there are 12 groups instead of eight, it’s hard to find a Group of Death with four exceptionally strong teams.
• They are in an evenly matched pool, and while seen as the least likely team to win Group D, they still have a decent 17.9% hope of topping the table.
• Meanwhile, the USMNT are +6000 longshots to win on home soil, with co-host Mexico also at +6000 and Canada longshots at +17500.
• Picking a winner is harder than it has ever been, and that’s precisely what makes the build-up so compelling.
• Lionel Messi made history in the group stage, overtaking Miroslav Klose as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer.
• David Raya, Mikel Merino and Martin Zubimendi are Premier League champions and Champions League runners-up.
• Expert tips, group stage analysis, outright winner predictions, Golden Boot picks, and match forecasts for all 104 games at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — updated throughout the tournament.
• 48 teams compete at the 2026 World Cup — expanded from 32 at Qatar 2022.
• The egos have been left at home and this group, which is full of pace and running, has been picked to flourish in the conditions.
• We’ve added a new chart to show you the method of advancement (regulation, extra time, penalties) just to cover all our bases.
• Argentina enter as defending champion, but without Angel Di Maria, one of the anchors of their last run, they lack the same spark.

The teams that can solve different tactical puzzles, manage their energy levels and thrive in hostile conditions usually find themselves going deepest into the competition. They are the reigning European champions too, having beaten England in the final two years ago, and will be looking to add to their only World Cup title from 2010. We now live in a world where Brazil, the nation with more World Cups than any other, are considered ‘dark horses’. There is something quite romantic about one of the godfathers of management being appointed by the most famous footballing country to bring home the greatest prize in football for a record-extending sixth time. None of the South American powerhouses have been overly convincing in recent times, but you’d have to guess that if the winner were to come from outside Europe, Argentina and Brazil would be favourites.

Deschamps also lifted the trophy as a player when he was captain in 1998 and this will be Kylian Mbappé’s first World Cup as France skipper. If Spain are to triumph, it is likely Lamine Yamal will play a key role. Their Euro 2024 triumph came the day after Yamal’s 17th birthday, as he replaced Pelé (1958, 17 years, 249 days) as the youngest player to feature in a World Cup or European Championship final.

FANTASY FOOTBALL TOOLS

At Euro 2024, Luis de la Fuente’s Spain produced one of the most eye-catching international tournament successes in recent memory. Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal should not be discounted, while the three host nations will be desperate to make their mark. 48 teams compete at the 2026 World Cup — expanded from 32 at Qatar 2022. They are split into 12 groups of four, with 32 teams advancing to the knockout rounds.

FIFA World Cup 2026 Simulator

This involves two teams from CONCACAF and one team from the AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL and OFC. The two highest-ranked teams will go directly into the finals, and the four lowest-ranked nations will meet in bracket semi-finals, with the winners of the two bracket finals reaching the FIFA World Cup 26. The FIFA World Cup is one of the most highly-anticipated football events and commands enormous betting interest from players.

More in Argentina

Kick-off is scheduled for June 2026, and the final will take place in July. The most telling duel of this fixture will be Cape Verde’s defensive block against Argentina’s movement in the final third. Messi has scored six goals in three World Cup 2026 group matches, meaning Cape Verde’s centre-backs Logan Costa and Roberto Lopes must track him constantly, which in turn creates space for Martinez and Alvarez to exploit. With Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez capable of picking passes from deep, the spaces behind Cape Verde’s defensive line are likely to be tested repeatedly and at pace from the first whistle. Rui Aguas guided his side to three draws in Group H against Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia, which proved enough to advance, making them one of the surprise packages of the tournament. Their organised defensive shape has been the foundation throughout, keeping clean sheets against Spain and Saudi Arabia and conceding only twice across three games.

Germany are given a 54.7 percent chance of winning inside 90 minutes, while Paraguay’s chances stand at 23.1 percent. The remaining 22.3 percent of simulations ended level after normal time, sending the tie to extra time and possibly penalties. Brazil and Japan match up in a Round of 32 contest in the World Cup 2026 on Monday. Brazil won Group C to advance to the knockout round, while Japan were runners-up in Group F. Both squads were undefeated in the 2026 World Cup group stage, with Brazil having 7 points, while the Japanese notched 5 points. These teams last met in Oct. 2025 in which Japan won for the first time in 14 matches versus the Brazilians. The World Cup 2026 knockout stage ruthlessly separates those who have managed a passage through a group from those who can compete at the elite level over 90 minutes.

How many teams are in the 2026 World Cup?

I personally love this matchup, with two of Africa’s strongest sides potentially meeting in the knockout round. Ivory Coast return to the World Cup after a 12‑year absence, built around a core of prime‑age players. While their physicality and attacking threat stand out, their defense is arguably their greatest strength, led by Roma’s Evan N’Dicka. That said, Senegal appear the more complete side, with greater star power likely to make the difference. This contest may be decided in extra time or penalties, favoring Senegal.

• The draw is priced at 15/2, reflecting just how unlikely a stalemate is given the gap in class between these two sides.
• What a story it would be if, at 41-years-old, Cristiano Ronaldo matches his arch rival Lionel Messi by helping Portugal to a first-ever World Cup this summer.
• For the first time, 48 nations will compete to lift the World Cup trophy in an expanded tournament, which will be jointly hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada across 16 stadiums.
• Norway came through the toughest group in their first World Cup since 1998, Colombia won Group K, Morocco backed up their 2022 run, and Japan again showed they can beat anyone.
• Egypt, Mohamed Salah and all, should have more than enough to do the job here.
• We estimate each team’s chances by simulating the entire World Cup tournament thousands of times and counting how often a team wins the group, gets second, third and so on.
• The 2026 FIFA World Cup features 48 teams — the largest in tournament history.

World Cup 2026: Here are USA’s potential opponents in knockout round after clinching Group D’s top spot

You can head to SportsLine now to see Green’s 2026 World Cup picks. All eyes, though, will be on teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, who joins Ronaldo and Messi as one of the most searched players in the world. Just 18 years old, he is tipped to be the young player of the tournament and already has the ability to spearhead his team to World Cup glory. While Messi inspired his capable but unspectacular team-mates to glory in 2022, Ronaldo arrives in North America with real quality all around him. There’s the PSG clan of Joao Neves, Nuno Mendes, Goncalo Ramos and Ballon d’Or third-place Vitinha who are coming into this off the back of a second straight Champions League win. Brilliant Bernardo Silva and the livewire Rafael Leao are in Roberto Martinez’s squad too.

It can be important to look at historical matchups like England vs Germany for example, and where the results over the years may indicate which team might win the upcoming game. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any intriguing games in the group stage. Here are 10 pivotal matchups you’ll see in group play before 32 teams move on to the knockout rounds. Last time out in 2022, Holland reached the quarter-finals, and a win over Morocco would see them secure a spot in the round of 16 against South Africa and Canada, opening up a route into the final eight of the tournament. Netherlands have reached the most World Cup finals without ever lifting the trophy (three), while Norway are flying having steamrolled their way through the UEFA qualifiers with 37 goals – the most of any team.

Group D: Turkey vs USA Headline Group with Knockout Stakes

• At Euro 2024, Luis de la Fuente’s Spain produced one of the most eye-catching international tournament successes in recent memory.
• But Mexico are given only a 1.0% chance of victory, putting them behind fellow co-hosts United States, Japan and Ecuador, and level with Senegal.
• Netherlands have been impressive this summer, but we are expecting Morocco to record a 2-1 victory in order to progress to the round of 16.
• Logan Costa provides quality at centre-back, while Ryan Mendes, Cape Verde’s all-time leading scorer, remains their most experienced attacking threat.
• England are another nation with a strong squad, and they will be seeking to avenge their heartache in recent major competitions where they have fallen at the final hurdle or close to it.
• They’ve been excellent in this tournament, and Sweden’s attack-oriented mindset is generally a less effective strategy for pulling off an upset than Paraguay’s more defensive stance.
• The final will be played at MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey.
• Croatia rank just above co-hosts USA and place 15th overall in terms of potential winners with a 1.6% chance.
• History is not on their side in this matchup, as Switzerland arrive with a full-strength side built on midfield physicality and an elite attacking presence in Breel Embolo and Fabian Rieder.
• According to the Opta supercomputer, there are six other teams who should go into the tournament with strong hopes of going all the way.

When the smart-money crowd converges on a Top 4, history suggests a team NOT in that group wins the tournament about 25% of the time. Top 5 (Argentina, Spain, France, England, Brazil) most likely to reach this stage. Historical data suggests 5 of 8 QF teams will be from Europe + South America. Most matches should follow ranking expectations, but expect 2–4 upsets given third-placed teams are typically mid-tier (ranked 40–80 globally).

• In addition to the top eight favourites, there are two other teams given at least a 2% chance of winning the World Cup – Norway (2.3%) and Colombia (2.0%).
• Ghana were victorious in 17.6 percent of simulations, while the draw was rated at 26.2 percent.
• Japan and Sweden are well organized but lack the elite experience needed to challenge the Dutch.
• Only one other nation – the outright favorites Spain – are likelier to win their pool than the reigning champions, with a favourable Group J draw pitting them against Austria, Algeria and Jordan.
• Portugal are slight favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, winning 51.6 percent of its 25,000 pre-match simulations.
• Thankfully, we can turn to the Opta supercomputer to provide a comprehensive World Cup forecast that sets realistic expectations for supporters of all 48 nations.
• Mbappé is closing in on Olivier Giroud’s mark of 57 goals for France, having netted 55 times in his 93 caps.
• While our percentages have not proven overly kind to them, we should be clear that just reaching the tournament is a spectacular accomplishment.
• Six of the teams appearing at the tournament are still to be decided, with four qualifying via the UEFA play-offs and another two via the inter-confederation playoffs.
• But time and again, they flatter to deceive on this stage, and the sight of them hanging on against Iran should give Australia plenty of encouragement.
• Yamal created the most chances at the tournament, with 19, while only teammate Nico Williams (2.1) had more expected assists (xA) than his 2.0.
• Ecuador shocked already-qualified Germany to reach this phase, but expect Javier Aguirre’s men to make it four wins out of four.
• However, the 2-1 defeat to Ecuador last time out was still a major disappointment, with Julian Nagelsmann’s side therefore set to enter this match off the back of a defeat.
• Morocco, meanwhile, picked up seven points from their three games in Group C to finish second, only behind Brazil on goal difference.
• Furthermore, play-off spots will also feature teams from these continents too.
• Netherlands topped Group F with seven points to breeze into the round of 32, while Morocco finished second in Group C behind Brazil, also claiming seven points from three games.

Turkey could be one of the surprise packages this summer, as they gear up for their first World Cup since a memorable third-place finish in 2002. Cape Verde (0.1%) have qualified and are the second-smallest nation by population (after Iceland in 2018) to achieve the feat. They fared slightly better with our model than the other first-timers Curaçao and Jordan (both 0.04%). If previous World Cups are anything to go by, shocks and surprises should be a given, so all those teams will still be dreaming of a deep run.

• But, of course, that previous World Cup dry spell ended with victory in a tournament hosted by the United States.
• I’m giving Morocco the edge to win the group due to their cohesion and leadership from Achraf Hakimi, as well as difference‑makers like Ez Abde.
• All 72 group stage matches covered with win probability data, banker tips, accumulator strategy, and African kick-off times.
• However, it probably won’t be enough to prevent the Selecao from edging through to the next round.
• With Messi complemented by two high-profile strikers still in their prime, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Alvarez, Argentina should not be short of goals.
• Netherlands could meet a Germany or a France in the final eight, and their performances thus far have suggested that a potential challenge for the trophy is possible.
• While powerhouse nations like France, Argentina and Spain remain favorites, the expanded format creates more room for upsets, dark horses and unexpected runs that can completely reshape the bracket.
• Kick-off is scheduled for June 2026, and the final will take place in July.
• For example, by reproducing the kind of performance they showed in the opening half-hour against Brazil.
• Even at home in the 2022 World Cup, Qatar still couldn’t get a point and they’ll likely struggle to do so again.
• Top 10 championship probabilities based on FIFA ranking, ELO, and weighted recent form.

Cape Verde are not believed to have significant injury concerns heading into this fixture. Goalkeeper Vozinha, a veteran of 86 caps, has been the experienced anchor behind the defensive shape that earned their group stage draws. Logan Costa provides quality at centre-back, while Ryan Mendes, Cape Verde’s all-time leading scorer, remains their most experienced attacking threat. Jamiro Monteiro and Garry Rodrigues add craft in midfield, and manager Aguas is expected to name a similar side to the one that earned three draws through the group phase. But Argentina go into 2026 with momentum, a settled spine, and the small matter of Lionel Messi possibly playing one last World Cup at 39.

None of the three co-hosts are favorites, but all three reached the knockouts and all three have a real story to tell. Lionel Messi made history in the group stage, overtaking Miroslav Klose as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer. He is the front-runner for the 2026 Golden Boot, with France’s Kylian Mbappe and Norway’s Erling Haaland the closest challengers.

Belgium vs Senegal Picks, Tips, Odds & Best Bets: 2026 World Cup Round of 32

DR Congo clinched its first-ever spot in the World Cup knockout stage, and with that, the nation was rewarded with England. Three Lions have had a tumultuous and injury-riddled group stage, but Thomas Tuchel’s squad should still come out on top. Argentina enter the tournament as defending champions, four years on from Lionel Messi’s long-awaited crowning moment, and as the all-time great prepares for his last dance on this stage. Stephen Eustaquio’s late goal sparked jubilant celebrations among the co-hosts, with head coach Jesse Marsch telling his players they had become “Canadian heroes” and inspired the next generation of footballers.

France have reached the final in four of the last seven editions – twice as often as any other nation during that period – and it would be a surprise if they were not there or thereabouts once again. Deschamps also lifted the trophy as a player when he was captain in 1998, and this World Cup will be the first for Mbappé as France skipper. Within that sextet, three teams are seen as the biggest challengers to Spain and three others, while very much in the mix, might need a little more good fortune to go their way if they are to emerge triumphant.

They won’t have the same surprise factor this time around but still made it to what proved to be a chaotic AFCON final this year and started the month of June sitting a lofty eighth in the FIFA world rankings. Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Colombia and Morocco should all realistically target a long run and are dark horses to go the distance. But, of course, that previous World Cup dry spell ended with victory in a tournament hosted by the United States. It is 24 years since Brazil last prevailed and only once before have they endured a drought of that length since first winning in 1958, which was between 1970 and 1994.

For the complete match-by-match schedule with dates, times, and venues, see our full World Cup 2026 fixtures guide. Official FIFA schedule will confirm exact kick-off times for each match. Each 4-team group sends 2 teams automatically plus 8 of the 12 third-placed teams to R32. The final is on July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium, also known as MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, New Jersey, which holds about 82,500 fans. The 2022 semifinalists are through from Group C, and we are tipping them to upset the Netherlands. France opened with a 3-1 win over Senegal and a 3-0 win over Iraq, then sealed Group I with a 4-1 win over Norway featuring an Ousmane Dembele hat-trick.

But by the time next year’s tournament rolls around, it will have been 12 years since Germany played a knockout game at a World Cup. The only one other team assigned more than a one-in-10 chance of becoming world champions is England, who are out to end 60 years of hurt at major tournaments. Sixteen venues across the United States, Canada and Mexico will play host to the biggest-ever edition of the tournament, with the number of teams increasing from 32 and 48 and the tally of games upped from 64 to 104. Teams with statistically underrated odds given their ELO momentum and recent tournament form. The 48-team format’s wider R32 bracket creates more upset opportunities than the 32-team era. France’s flawless group stage made them the favorite, Argentina drew the kinder half of the bracket, Norway are the dark horse, and Messi leads the Golden Boot race as the competition’s all-time top scorer.

• Curaçao are the smallest nation by both area and population to ever get this far and following their progress is one of many fascinating subplots to look out for in a World Cup that is not to be missed.
• Mikel Oyarzabal and Mikel Merino were among Spain’s star performers in qualifying.
• And while the U.S. doesn’t have a star the caliber of those players, Christian Pulisic stands out as a player to watch on the team.
• If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, support is available at GambleAware or GamCare.
• Brazil’s 5-title history matters less than their last 3 tournaments.
• Build your bracket, play the prediction league, and follow every match — all in one place.
• Colombia also deserve their lofty status in our projections, as they come in the tournament off the back of a run to the final of the 2024 Copa América, having outscored all other teams at that tournament with 12 goals.
• The expanded format will give more teams a chance, but it will also test the endurance and tactical flexibility of every squad.
• The Netherlands enter as a world‑class side looking to make a statement.
• Emiliano Martinez is the undisputed first-choice goalkeeper, with the back four expected to feature Nahuel Molina and Nicolas Tagliafico as full-backs alongside Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero in central defence.
• He could become only the third manager to win both the UEFA Champions League and the World Cup, after Marcello Lippi (Juventus, Italy) and Del Bosque (Real Madrid, Spain).
• They conceded just eight goals across their last 16 World Cup qualifying matches, shutting out both Brazil and Argentina along the way.
• For the first time, 48 nations compete across 104 matches spread over 39 days in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
• Firstly, England have the squad and it’s been picked for purpose by Thomas Tuchel.

Switzerland pipped Canada to win Group B. Colombia won Group K ahead of Portugal, the only group favorite not to finish top. Croatia recovered to take second in England’s group, pushing Ghana to a third-place spot. Use the World Cup 2026 Simulator to pick every tie and build your own bracket. Tap a contender to see its group run and knockout path, then lock in your pick. Squad depth will matter more than ever, as the schedule becomes tighter and physically demanding. Earn points, climb the leaderboard, and create private leagues with friends.

Who Are the Favourites to Win the 2026 World Cup?

Three of those victories came in competitive World Cup fixtures against varied opposition, and the only goal shipped was against Jordan in a dead-rubber group finale. Argentina are in clinical form and showing no signs of complacency heading into the knockout rounds. A complete Python pipeline for predicting match outcomes, generatingexpected goals, and running Monte Carlo tournament simulations.Built for YouTube creators who want AI-powered soccer analysis. Green has studied the 2026 World Cup draw and locked in his best bets and predictions, including his outright winner. He’s also identified a longshot team priced at over +1000 that could pull off a massive shocker and hoist the trophy. France will naturally sit near the top of most betting markets but they are easier to oppose than the odds suggest.

He was in the squad that swept all before them to win Euro 2024 in such impressive style just two summers ago. As the tournament draws ever closer, getting stuck into the Opta supercomputer’s projections is the perfect way to whet your appetite while brushing up on some stimulating statistics. Thankfully, we can turn to the Opta supercomputer to provide a comprehensive World Cup forecast that sets realistic expectations for supporters of all 48 nations.

• Turkey could be one of the surprise packages this summer, as they gear up for their first World Cup since a memorable third-place finish in 2002.
• Brazil are the only side to qualify for every edition of the World Cup, though the Seleção cut things a little too fine this time around, finishing fifth in CONMEBOL’s qualifiers.
• Spain’s young core, led by Lamine Yamal and Pedri, looked devastating en route to Euro 2024.
• Group-by-group odds, knockout stage forecasts, and tapados watch — all powered by FIFA rankings, ELO ratings, and past tournament performance.
• These four all reached the knockouts and have the profile to go further.
• This page is refreshed after each knockout round, so the picks always reflect the latest results.

Lautaro Martínez, Julián Álvarez, and Enzo Fernández give them genuine quality even without Messi at his peak. They start as third-favourites and would be considered a major threat in any era. Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT is also given great odds of making it through to the next round, sitting at 78.46%.

They could give Germany a run for their money in Group E and are given a 43.4% chance of reaching the last 16. But Mexico are given only a 1.0% chance of victory, putting them behind fellow co-hosts United States, Japan and Ecuador, and level with Senegal. Mexico, who will play South Africa in the opening game at Estadio Azteca, also fare reasonably well in our sims. They are given a 47.8% chance of topping Group A, which also contains South Korea and Czechia. It’s not a big surprise to see leading European nations join traditional World Cup heavyweights Argentina and Brazil as the top 10 teams tipped to challenge this summer. Netherlands (3.6%) and Norway (3.5%) rank highest in terms of possible World Cup winners.

How far will the host nations get?

Here’s how to watch all 104 World Cup matches for free, and here’s a channel guide for the group stage games. For those who prefer Spanish-language broadcasts, 92 games will be on Telemundo, with the other 12 matches (all simultaneous group finales) on Universo. The Yahoo Sports soccer team has its picks for Golden Ball, Golden Boot, Golden Glove, biggest disappointments and more right here.

Messi extends his World Cup legacy while Ronaldo faces defining moment

Here you’ll find detailed estimates for how likely all teams are to reach each round or to win the tournament. These teams met in the last 16 in Qatar and Argentina had to endure some nervy moments. Lionel Scaloni’s men have two major tournament successes in their back pocket since then and can make easy work of this game. The first 48–team field in World Cup history has been filed down to 32 for the knockout stages. Head coach Amir Ghalenoei described the team’s misfortune as extraordinary after Iran became the first side at the tournament to have three goals ruled out by VAR.

But Spain’s quality is highlighted by being the only team rated as more likely than not to reach the quarter-finals, which they did 52.1% of the time. The Sporting News is tracking the favourites to win and best betting offers including 50/1 for a goal to be scored in England vs. Congo and 40/1 for Harry Kane to have a shot in the match. This final comes down to France’s athleticism, depth and physical dominance against Portugal’s control of possession and tempo.

• These four all reached the knockouts and have the profile to go further.
• Here’s how to watch all 104 World Cup matches for free, and here’s a channel guide for the group stage games.
• Netherlands have reached the most World Cup finals without ever lifting the trophy (three), while Norway are flying having steamrolled their way through the UEFA qualifiers with 37 goals – the most of any team.
• The bracket is set, and now all 32 teams can start to dream about their path to the final.
• Jesse Marsch’s co-hosts missed out on top spot in Group B after defeat to Switzerland and must decamp to L.A.
• Iran captain Mehdi Taremi accused FIFA of failing to address logistical problems facing his team at the World Cup after Friday’s 1-1 draw with Egypt.
• Norway, meanwhile, is making its first World Cup appearance since France 1998 and has looked every bit like a dangerous dark horse.
• The final is on July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium, also known as MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, New Jersey, which holds about 82,500 fans.
• Brazil are the only side to qualify for every edition of the World Cup, though the Seleção cut things a little too fine this time around, finishing fifth in CONMEBOL’s qualifiers.
• Spain’s young core, led by Lamine Yamal and Pedri, looked devastating en route to Euro 2024.
• While their physicality and attacking threat stand out, their defense is arguably their greatest strength, led by Roma’s Evan N’Dicka.
• A complete Python pipeline for predicting match outcomes, generatingexpected goals, and running Monte Carlo tournament simulations.Built for YouTube creators who want AI-powered soccer analysis.
• The trio are closely matched and have regularly traded ranking positions leading up to the summer.
• This page is refreshed after each knockout round, so the picks always reflect the latest results.

These World Cup 2026 predictions combine the final group standings and results with our own group-by-group analysis, updated after every matchday. The picks weigh how each team actually performed, the strength of their group, and the bracket path ahead of them. This page is refreshed after each knockout round, so the picks always reflect the latest results. Les Éléphants have reached the World Cup knockout stages for the first time in their history after finishing second in Group E behind Germany on goal difference. Emerse Faé’s side has impressed with its energy, athleticism and attacking balance, and now has the chance to script another memorable chapter.

But they should have too much for South Africa, even if their often erratic finishing threatens to leave the game in the balance. The disappointing campaign prompted President Lee to order a full review of the national team programme, describing the result as “deeply bewildering” and questioning both the team’s structure and Hong’s appointment. South Korea head coach Hong Myung-bo has resigned following his side’s group-stage elimination from the World Cup, after coming under heavy criticism from President Lee Jae-myung. Morocco, meanwhile, arrive in a confident mood after beating Scotland and are aiming for back-to-back World Cup wins over European opponents for the first time. The Opta supercomputer makes Brazil the favourites to reach the next round. This promises to be one of the most evenly matched ties of the Round of 32.

They also won last summer’s Nations League, getting the better of both Germany and Spain in the semi-finals and finals, with largely the same group of players. He’s a winner and with the squad he’s picked, he obviously has a plan. Gareth Southgate did a fabulous job, reaching back-to-back Euros finals with England, but his in-game management was called into question as he failed to get England over the line. That is where Tuchel excels and it could prove to be the difference maker for the Three Lions.

These two met at the same stage of Euro 2024 and Spain won en route to glory. France, with their deeper, lavishly gifted squad, can gain revenge as the fresher of the two over this slog of a tournament. Houston is a long way from Canada, and this is probably where the co-hosts’ run comes to earth, with 2022 semifinalists Morocco going deep once more. Senegal looked sharp in their final win over Iraq but didn’t impress much against Norway ro France. European opponents tend to fill the United States with dread, but Bosnia has faded down the stretch in all of their matches, even the win over Qatar. Both of these teams have enjoyed free-scoring group-stage outingsm but if Sweden enter a 90-minute shootout with Kylian Mbappe and company, they are likely to be outgunned.

The Opta supercomputer is reasonably positive about the chances of the three co-host nations, suggesting all of them are likely to produce solid – albeit not necessarily spectacular – tournaments. Erling Haaland struck 16 times in just eight games, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign. We have covered the seven teams who are most likely to win the tournament, but there are also a few other potential winners. They have topped their first-round pool in every World Cup since 1982 and have a 60.4% chance of winning Group C. Of course, they were famously crowned world champions in South Africa – but that 2010 success also represents the only time they have reached the semi-finals from their last 14 participations. They made it to the UEFA Nations League final – where it took a penalty shootout for Portugal to beat them – and eased through qualification, topping Türkiye to go unbeaten across six games.

Germany are the supercomputer’s fifth favourites with a 7.1% chance of winning a record-equalling fifth World Cup. With a 14.1% chance, France are the supercomputer’s second favourites, just behind Spain, who beat them 5-4 in the semi-finals of the UEFA Nations League in June. While our model doesn’t deviate too much from the conventional wisdom, we don’t have teams in quite the same order. There are charts showing each team’s chance of winning it all, their most likely opponents at each stage, and precise odds for each game, including the likelihood of particular scores (e.g., Brazil 2-1). The most comprehensive World Cup 2026 predictions resource available.